NOAA predicts heavy Atlantic storm season as La Nina takes hold
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will likely bring an above-average number of named storms, as US weather watchers factored in the likely impact of the La Nina weather system.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said in its first forecast of 2024 that there is an 85% chance that this year's hurricane season will be more active than normal, with the potential for 17-25 named storms with wind speeds of at least 63 kph (39 mph).
The forecast also predicts that eight to 13 storms will develop into hurricanes with winds of at least 119 kph, with four to seven strengthening to major hurricane status.
A major hurricane is classified as any storm that reaches at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph). A "typical" hurricane season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
Storms thrive in warm ocean temperatures and moist air, while low vertical also wind shear helps the formation of storms.
The government agency said that as one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics.
"At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development."
Last month, the Colorado State University forecasted 23 named storms for this year, including 11 expected to become hurricanes and five that could reach major hurricane status.
Gulf of Mexico
Long-range forecasts do not provide predictions for storm tracks or landfall, but in the last two years, the oil and gas industry centred in the Gulf of Mexico and along the US Gulf Coast largely escaped any major hurricanes.
This was in contrast to the 2020 and 2021 storm seasons when oil and gas facilities took major hits both onshore and offshore.
The most devastating was Hurricane Ida in 2021, which ripped through offshore facilities before barreling into Louisiana's Port Fourchon energy hub, leaving some installations offline for months.
The 2020 hurricane season also devastated the oil and gas sector, with storms including Marco, Laura and Sally ripping through the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall along the US Gulf coast.
Not only are refineries vulnerable to high-category storms, but the huge expansion in LNG exports in Texas and Louisiana has added another layer of risk.
NOAA added that the 2024 hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.
