Atlantic set for 'extremely active' 2024 hurricane season: forecast
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to bring high levels of storm activity as the La Niña weather system fuels record sea temperatures, according to a forecast published by Colorado State University.
The CSU is forecasting 23 named storms, including 11 expected to become hurricanes and five that could reach major hurricane status.
"Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions," said the CSU in its first major forecast for the 2024 season.
"Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active."
The report noted that a warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification, adding the forecast was "above-normal confidence for an early April outlook."
The CSU added there is a well above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Gulf of Mexico
Long-range forecasts do not provide predictions for storm tracks or landfall, but in the last two years, the oil and gas industry centred in the Gulf of Mexico and along the US Gulf Coast largely escaped any major storms.
This was in contrast to the 2020 and 2021 storm seasons when oil and gas facilities took major hits both onshore and offshore.
The most devastating was Hurricane Ida in 2021, which ripped through offshore facilities before barreling into Louisiana's Port Fourchon energy hub, leaving some installations offline for months.
The 2020 hurricane season also devastated the oil and gas sector, with storms including Marco, Laura and Sally ripping through the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall along the US Gulf coast.
Not only are refineries vulnerable to high-category storms, but the huge expansion in LNG exports in Texas and Louisiana has added another layer of risk.
The CSU said it will update its forecast again in June.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is expected to make its initial 2024 hurricane forecast in May.
