FACTBOX: Bioenergy and hydrogen- IEA lays out transport pathway to net zero

18 May 2021

London, (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) - On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency outlined its long-awaited pathway for how the world can move to net-zero emissions by 2050, prioritising a role for biofuels and hydrogen in the transport sector.

Overall, electricity becomes the dominant fuel in transport within 20 years, accounting for 45% of energy consumption by 2050 compared with just 1.5% in 2020.

Two-thirds of that supply to the transport sector will come from hydrogen with 15% from bioenergy.

The key, and largely expected, takeaway from the report is that 2050 will signal the end of the combustion engine in cars, with no new internal combustion cars sold after 2035 and the share of new car sales that are electric rising from 5% currently to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.

By 2035, half of heavy truck sales must also be electric to meet the goal.

Transport pathway

Oil-based fuels to account for 74% of energy in transport in 2030, 41% in 2040 and just 12% in 2050.
Liquid biofuels to meet 13% of transport demand in 2030 and 21% by 2050. Up from 3%, currently.
Advanced biofuel production using woody feedstock to make up almost 45% of liquid biofuels in 2030 and 90% in 2050, up from less than 1% in 2020.
Hydrogen‐based fuels meet a further 28% of total transport energy needs by 2050, with 60% from 60% water electrolysis (green hydrogen) and 40% from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (blue hydrogen).
In road transport, the number of internal combustion engine-only vehicles should be almost zero by 2050, with the market entirely powered by battery, plug-in and fuel cell electric; no new ICE passenger car sales after 2035.
In aviation, oil-based jet kerosene should be 20% of energy in 2050, down from almost 100% currently.
Advanced liquid biofuels increase their share of the global aviation fuel market from less than 1% currently, to 15% in 2030 and 45% in 2050; synthetic kerosene meets around one‐third of global aviation fuel demand in 2050.
Policy-driven behavioural change to reduce total demand for energy in aviation by 20% in 2030 and 38% in 2050.
In maritime shipping, ammonia and hydrogen to provide 10% of energy in 2030 and 63% in 2050; bioenergy to make up 7% and 21% respectively. Energy efficiency improvements will slash consumption over the next decade.