EDITORIAL: COP29 outcomes on carbon markets a fillip, after disappointment of Trump's election
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - In the run up to COP29 in Baku, the re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency had put a dampener on the talks even before they began.
However, the outcomes from the Baku meeting from a carbon market perspective could not have been more positive, particularly given the non-event ending 12 months previously at COP28 in Dubai.
COP29 started positively on the very first day with the adoption of standards on methodology requirements and carbon dioxide removals for Article 6.4, which had been approved at the last meeting of the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body.
Debate ahead of Baku had been whether or not COP would rubber stamp these standards and so to have this issue resolved so quickly was a fillip.
What then followed on Article 6 was more typical of the UN climate process at COP, with texts being published on both Article 6.4 and Article 6.2 at regular intervals from the middle of the first week onwards.
Approval
One step forward, another one back, until late on the second Saturday approved texts were gavelled through by the Azerbaijani presidency.
And so after the ignominy of the Dubai outcome on Article 6, Baku has delivered what probably many didn't expect: texts key to the functioning of the Article 6.2 and 6.4 that mean tangible work can now really begin on measures to cut and remove greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere.
"Just like that, it's done," said Olga Gassan-zade, a long-term negotiator on Article 6 and a recent chair of a UN-appointed Supervisory Body panel on Article 6.4 (SBM).
When the dust settles on COP29 the hard yards will start on making Article 6 work, and ensuring that the failures of the last UN carbon market mechanism are not repeated, as scrutiny will be even higher than before.
A lot more attention is likely be on the SBM in 2025 to take forward Article 6.4, or the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) as it is now being referred to.
The first meeting of 2025 is not until February 10-14 and, according to the documents from the last meeting, is to be held in Bhutan.
A detailed agenda for the event is not yet available and so it is too soon to speculate on what will be discussed, although the first meetings of each year have tended to set the agenda for the year ahead, as well as determine a new chair/vice chair for the board.
By the time that meeting does take place, the US will have a new President in place. Trump has already said the US will pull out of the Paris Agreement, as it did under his previous presidency. Even if that happens on his first day back in office, the US will still effectively be in the agreement for 12 more months, given the notice period.
Delegation
Potentially, therefore, a Trump administration delegation could be at COP30 in Belem, and he did send delegates previously, albeit more lower-level officials and with more emphasis on fossil fuels.
However, during COP29, Trump announced Chris Wright as his proposed Energy Secretary. Wright has no political experience, is chief executive of an oil services firm, and is on the record as saying there is no climate crisis, nor is there an energy transition.
As scary as views like this sound, they are not that much different from the US position under previous Republican presidents, with little engagement at the UN level.
Of course it is far from ideal, but plenty is being done still at the state level - just this week Oregon agreed rules for cap-and-trade - and, if expert commentators are to be believed, much of the federal money for climate initiatives under President Joe Biden will have been delivered by the time Trump takes office.
And given the progress at COP29 in Baku, the rest of the world has much to concentrate on to try and deliver on Paris goals.