Weekly Dubai crude up over 3% on EU sanctions, OPEC shortfalls

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Dubai crude finished the week ending 6 May higher, following the bullish global sentiment as the European Union laid out plans to wean itself off Russian oil by the end of the year.

Front-month Dubai cash for July delivery was assessed by Quantum Friday at $107.80/b, versus $104.50/b on 29 April, up 3.15%.

Thursday's OPEC+ decision to add 432,000 bpd to headline June production levels was widely expected but attention was firmly focused on actual production levels as both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group fall further behind on targets.

Surveys covering April output revealed steep shortfalls, including Bloomberg saying OPEC added just 10,000 bpd in April, while the Reuters survey for the same period calculated the group added 40,000 bpd.

The prompt Dubai structure also firmed over the past week as the key M1/M3 (Jul22/Sep22) spread, used by NOCs in OSP calculations, was up $0.70/b on the week at $5.04/b, while the one-year curve strengthened by around $1.60/b to $18.15/b.

ICE Brent futures for Jun22 were assessed at $111.76/b on the Singapore close Friday, up by $3.61/b on the week, widening the Brent/Dubai cash spread for July to around $4/b, compared with $3.65/b last Friday.

The July Brent/Dubai EFS rallied to a five-week high of $9/b versus $7.90/b for the same month last week.

DME Oman futures closed the week around 4% higher at $107.87/b for the Jul22 contract, sitting near parity to cash Dubai.

Light sweet Murban crude trading on Abu Dhabi's IFAD exchange closed Friday at $110.23/b, up 3.2% on the week and valuing Jul22 Murban around $1.10/b under Brent, compared to a discount of $0.92/b the previous week.