US predicts average Atlantic hurricane season as El Nino develops
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will likely bring an average number named storms, as US weather watchers factored in the possible impact of the El Nino weather system.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher, of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
NOAA said it has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The agency said the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season.
"After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity," it said.
However, El Nino's potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin.
West Africa
Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon season, which produces African easterly waves, along with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which provides fuel for storms.
The Atlantic hurricane season is now a familiar fixture in the energy trading calendar, with price volatility impacting global oil and gas markets.
For 2022, meteorologists at the US government agency had forecast an above-normal season, but the US Gulf largely avoided significant disruption with only Hurricane Ian proving a threat to oil and gas facilities.
The 2020 hurricane season had a devastating impact on the oil and gas sector, with storms including Marco, Laura and Sally ripping through the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall along the US Gulf coast, which hosts much of the US energy infrastructure.
Hurricane Ida also caused severe damage to oil and gas facilities in 2021.
While the hurricane season runs from June to November, storms typically intensify in the mid-August to mid-October period, posing a major threat to shipping, offshore oil and gas production, along with refining in Texas and Louisiana.
