US energy execs see crude at $84/b by end 2023, nat. gas $5.64/mmBtu - survey

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Oil and gas executives operating in the southern oil-producing states of the US expect energy prices to recover from current levels during 2023, according to a survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Thursday.

On average, respondents expect a WTI oil price of $84/b by year-end 2023, compared to current monthly futures prices ranging from $76/b-$78/b, while responses ranged from $65/b-$160/b.

Survey participants expect a Henry Hub natural gas price of $5.64/mmBtu at year-end versus current 2023 forward contract prices on NYMEX ranging from $3.90-$4.50/mmBtu.

For reference, WTI spot prices averaged $73.67/b during the survey collection period, and Henry Hub spot prices averaged $5.93 per mmBtu, noted the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed collected the price forecasts in its latest energy survey of exploration and production (E&P) and oilfield services (OFS) firms across the Federal Reserve's three-state Eleventh District, which includes the oil-rich Permian Basin and the Haynesville Shale gas-producing region.

Data was collected from 7-15 December, and 152 energy firms responded. Of the respondents, 97 were exploration and production firms and 55 were oilfield services firms.

The previous forecast missed actual prices by a wide margin, although data was collected in June, which coincided with elevated oil and gas prices.

The June survey forecasted $108/b for WTI by the end of 2022, while Henry Hub predictions averaged $7.55/mmBtu.