TTF gas consolidates firm weekly gains, up 50% from Oct. lows

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – European natural gas prices Friday consolidated the steep weekly gains that lifted prices by over a third following a series of global gas supply disruptions and potential shortfalls.

Benchmark TTF futures for Nov23 in late Friday trade were up around 3.5% on the day at close to €55/MWh, but up over a third from last week's closing levels and 50% higher from the early October lows of around €36/MWh.

The closure of Israel's Chevron-operated 10 billion-plus cubic metre/year Tamar field for safety reasons on Monday is the most pressing matter, as the field supplies not only Israel but also Egypt and Jordan.

Northern Europe was hit this week by the shutdown of the 77-kilometre undersea Balticconnector gas pipeline, which links Finland and Estonia. Although officials are still investigating, suspicion is falling on deliberate sabotage, highlighting the potential vulnerability of Europe's energy structure.

The key TTF winter contracts for Jan24 and Feb24 have also posted sharp gains over the week trading above €58/MWh on Friday.

The renewed threat of industrial action in Australia has also spooked global LNG markets after unions representing members at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone plants gave notice Monday of plans to resume actions, including strikes from 19 October.

According to ING's commodity research, the processing plants have a combined capacity of 24.5 mtpa, or over 6% of global LNG supply.

Spot LNG prices have also rocketed with benchmark publisher Platts assessment for spot LNG cargoes into Northwest Europe up 50% week-on-week to $15.72/mmBtu by 12 October.

Platts JKM for Asian spot cargoes for November also rallied, assessed at  $15.35/mmBtu for 13 October, but failed to keep pace with Europe as Asia eased to a slight discount versus NWE.