Second survey finds OPEC+ cut just 300,000 bpd in November

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - A second independent survey has found a significant miss for OPEC+ in its attempts to rein in production, as some OPEC and non-OPEC members of the alliance managed to boost output while still staying with quotas.

Energy Intelligence found that crude oil output by OPEC+ members participating in the production deal fell by 300,000 bpd in November to 38.13 million bpd, having pledged to reduce by a combined 2 million bpd under an agreement reached in October.

Similarly, a survey from Argus found output from the 19 OPEC+ members subject to quotas fell by 310,000 bpd to 38.29 million bpd in November, leaving the group 1.81 million bpd short of its new substantially lower target last month.

Both Energy Intelligence and Argus are official secondary sources for OPEC+ and the data gathered is used to calculate compliance rates and set policy.

After OPEC+ announced the 2 million bpd output cut, analysts had forecast a reduction in the region of around 1 million bpd, with most member nations already pumping below quota due to various production problems.   

EI found that OPEC's four key Middle East producers – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait – reduced output by 920,000 bpd last month, largely meeting pledges.

However, this was offset by a substantial increase by four countries, namely Angola, Kazakhstan, Russia and Nigeria, although all remained within quota.

OPEC members Nigeria and Angola's combined output increased by 350,000 bpd compared with October. Kazakhstan and Russia, non-OPEC countries, managed a joint 320,000 bpd increase, said EI.

The survey also found that including the four members without a quota - Iran, Mexico, Libya and Venezuela – OPEC+ production in November dipped by just 220,000 bpd to 44.28 million bpd.