Russian export volumes for March uncertain amid conflicting reports
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Russia plans to slash oil exports from its western ports in the Baltic and Black Sea by up to 25% in March, according to a Reuters report, casting doubts on previous statements from Moscow over its abilities to maintain oil sales.
The report cited three market sources, indicating a sharp overall fall from February to March, which conflicts with previous announcements either from government officials or via Kremlin-controlled media.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 10 Feb that Russia will cut its crude oil production by 500,000 bpd from March, saying the "voluntary cut" comes as Russia refuses to sell crude oil to countries adhering to the $60/b price cap introduced by the G7 in December last year.
However, earlier this week newspaper Vedomosti said Russian oil producers are not expecting a downturn in March crude oil and product exports, citing company sources.
Novak has since told Russian newswire Interfax that Russia has so far decided to only cut its oil production for March with further adjustments from April onwards set to be made at a later date.
Analysts have increasingly indicated limited shipping availability from the "dark fleet" could cap long-haul flows, while broader sanctions have restricted Russia's access to equipment to maintain upstream operations.
The Reuters report referenced one source as saying pipeline operator Transneft had informed at least two firms they would be allocated 20-25% fewer barrels in March from Western ports than requested.
The cuts from Primorsk and Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea, along with Novorossiisk on the Black Sea.
According to data from Reuters and Refinitiv, Russia typically exports up to 10 million tonnes a month, or 2.5 million bpd, of Urals crude from the three ports.
