OPEC+ set to consider small production hike at monthly meeting

London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) — Ministers from the OPEC+ group of oil producers hold a virtual meeting Thursday, with analysts expecting either a rollover from current levels or small incremental increases from May.

A number of producers are expected to push for gradual increases, but key members of the original OPEC group, led by Saudi Arabia, prefer a more cautious approach and only want to hike production to match clear demand growth.

Earlier this week the group's Joint Technical Committee (JTC) revised downwards its global oil demand forecast for 2021 by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing a third wave of COVID-19 and further restrictions on movements in Europe

March 2020

OPEC+ group fails to reach an agreement on cutting supplies in face of the COVID-19 pandemic, as both Russia and Saudi increase production, triggering a sharp price drop.

April 2020

Opec+ agrees to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd, oil prices recover.

June 2020

Producers agree to extend the first phase of the 9.7 million bpd cuts for another month but announce plans for reduced cuts at 7.7 million bpd starting in August.

December 2020

Members announce a small 500,000 bpd increase for January 2021. Agree to hold meetings on a more regular basis in 2021 to review market conditions.

January 2021

Agree to keep output steady except for small increases in Russia and Kazakhstan.  Saudi Arabia announces a voluntary 1 million bpd cut for February and March.

March 2021

Agree to hold output steady apart from Russia and Kazakhstan. Saudi Arabia extends the voluntary 1 million bpd cut until at least April.