OPEC sees 2H 2022 exceeding 100m bpd

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – OPEC maintained its firm demand outlook Thursday, putting world oil demand growth for this year unchanged at 6 million barrels per day with 2021 demand set to average 96.6 million bpd.

Furthermore, oil demand in 2022 will be back at pre-pandemic levels, OPEC said in its July Monthly Oil Market Report.

"In 2022, healthy expectations for global economic growth in addition to improved containment of Covid-19… are assumed to spur consumption of oil next year to comparable pre-pandemic levels," said OPEC, adding that 2022 demand will average 99.9 million bpd and exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of the year.

OECD oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.5 million bpd in 2022, led by the Americas, but US oil demand will be marginally below 2019 levels, mainly due to lagging transportation fuel demand.

Non-OECD oil demand is projected to show an increase of 1.8 million bpd, as China and India exceed pre-pandemic levels.

OPEC crude production increased by 586,000 bpd to 26.034 million bpd in June, said the report, broadly in line with market surveys.

As expected, Saudi Arabia was behind most of the increase, at around a 425,000 bpd share, as it restores the voluntary cuts from earlier in the year.

The MOMR made no reference to the fallout from the early July OPEC+ meeting, only acknowledging continued cooperation.

"OPEC and the non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to closely evaluate the various factors that could impact the ongoing developments on a monthly basis, thereby being able to act swiftly in a very timely manner to safeguard the delicate recovery of the market balance."