OPEC maintains demand growth forecast as US, China growth offsets India

London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) – OPEC remains upbeat on the pace of the oil demand recovery Tuesday, maintaining demand growth from China and the US will offset the slowdown caused by India's coronavirus crisis.

'For 2021, world oil demand is expected to increase by 6.0 million barrels per day, unchanged from last month's estimate, to average 96.5 million bpd,' said OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report.

However, OPEC cautions over 'significant uncertainties,' primarily around coronavirus and particularly India.  

'India is currently facing severe COVID-19-related challenges and will therefore face a negative impact on its recovery in the second quarter, but it is expected to continue improving its momentum again in the second half of 2021.'

Meanwhile, OPEC raised the forecast call on its members' crude in 2021 by over 200,000 bpd, after trimming its projection for non-Opec supply by a similar amount and keeping its global oil demand estimate unchanged.

Opec now expects demand for its own crude to average 27.65mn bpd in 2021, almost 5.2 million bpd higher than 2020, when demand was severely hit by the global pandemic, leading to OPEC+ producers agreeing to reign in production.