OPEC maintains 2024/25 upbeat oil demand forecast - MOMR
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – OPEC has stuck with its upbeat outlook on 2024 demand, seeing growth at more than 2 million bpd followed by another solid year in 2025.
OPEC said in its latest monthly report that global demand would rise by 2.2 million bpd in 2024 and a further 1.8 million in 2025, pitting it against the Paris-based IEA, which in its latest February report put demand growth for this year around 1 million bpd under OPEC.
Both OPEC figures were unchanged from last month's forecast, while OPEC has raised its estimate for global economic growth this year to 2.8%, up from 2.7%, citing "robust" expansion in economic activity in the second half of the year.
"Given this economic backdrop, global oil demand in 2024 is forecast to expand by a robust 2.2 million bpd (y-o-y), followed by 1.8 million bpd in 2025. On a regional basis, most oil demand growth is expected in non-OECD economies, with an expansion of almost 2 million bpd in 2024 and 1.7 million bpd in 2025," the organisation said in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) Tuesday.
Earlier this month OPEC+ agreed to extend current output cuts until the end of the second quarter after the OPEC Secretariat said in a statement that several OPEC+ countries were extending additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd to support the "stability and balance" of oil markets.
Target
However, the group has missed targets in both January and February, primarily due to overproduction by Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Nigerian and Kazakhstan, making compliance a 'hot-button' issue going forward.
According to figures produced by secondary sources, the MOMR found that Iraq pumped 4.203 million bpd in February, considerably above its target of 4 million bpd which had been agreed at last November's OPEC+ meeting.
Based on 'direct communication', Iraq declared production at 3.992 million bpd in February, according to the report.
On the supply side, liquids production in 2024 is expected to grow by 1.1 million bpd, slightly revised down from the February forecast.
"The revision takes into account the recently announced additional voluntary production adjustments by OPEC+ members, which were rolled into the second quarter," said the report, reiterating non-OPEC growth would come from the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Norway.
It added non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 stands at 1.4 million bpd, revised up from the previous month mainly due to the base changes made in 2024.
