Oil futures: Crude slides as market eyes US tariff concerns

27 Jan 2025

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Crude oil futures opened the week lower to extend the price slide that has now wiped over 7% from headline Brent prices.

Front-month Mar25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $76.76/b (1720 GMT) versus Friday's settle of $78.50/b, while the more-liquid Apr25 contract was trading at $75.92/b.

At the same time Mar25 NYMEX WTI was trading at $72.79/b, versus Friday's close of $74.08/b and over $6/b down from mid-month highs.

Much of the 2H January decline has coincided with the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has reiterated calls for OPEC to cut prices while firing the first salvo in a looming tariff-led trade war.

"From a strong start, the mood among crude oil traders has in the past few days shifted back to one of caution, with the focus now squarely on Washington and the increased uncertainty caused by a wave of Trump announcements following his inauguration," said Ole S Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Group.

"Not least among these is the prospect of tariffs threatening to erupt into a global trade war, which may lead to lower growth and, with that, lower demand for energy," added the Saxo note.

Over the weekend, the Trump administration threatened steep tariffs and other sanctions against Colombia in a row over the deportation of migrants, making US intentions clear about international policy.

Sanctions

Meanwhile, the 1H January price spike caused by fresh sanctions against Moscow-controlled shipping has largely been reversed. Sellers of Russian oil have found several workarounds, although shipping remains squeezed.

Russia's President Putin has also mentioned the possibility of talks with his US counterpart and peace talks with Ukraine, but analysts said a quick settlement still appears unlikely. 

The broader financial selloff also weighed on the commodities sector as the US equities retreated, led by a slump in AI stocks.

Oil prices also wobbled following the latest official PMI survey for January showing a sharp downturn in China's economic activity ahead of the  Lunar New Year.