Oil futures: Crude nudges higher, OPEC+ meeting delayed

28 Nov 2024

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Crude oil futures in Thursday were marginally higher ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting, which has now been delayed until Thursday. 

Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $73.07/b (1600 GMT) versus Wednesday's settle of $72.83/b, while the more-liquid Feb25 was at $72.77/b.

At the same time Jan25 NYMEX WTI was trading at $68.85/b, versus Wednesday's close of $68.72/b, although volumes were thin due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

But with crude still trading close at the low end of the post-Covid range, OPEC+ is widely expected to announce a further delay to planned output increases for 2025.

Off the record media briefings, typically sanctioned by key decision-makers within the group, suggest that producers are likely to opt for a third postponement in easing voluntary production cuts.

The OPEC+ meeting has been delayed until 5 December due to a scheduling clash with the regional GCC meeting.

Lebanon

Prices also edged up after reports of military activity in southern Lebanon, with Israel targeting what it described as 'ceasefire violators'.

"Several suspects were identified arriving with vehicles to a number of areas in Southern Lebanon, breaching the condition of the ceasefire," the Israel Defense Forces said.

Benchmarks had tested one-week lows following the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, but analysts said the real test will come with a broader peace deal for the region.

Elsewhere in the geopolitical spectrum, investors were eyeing developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, which analysts said poses a greater threat to energy supplies, particularly winter gas flows to Central and Eastern Europe.

Markets were given a midweek uplift as US commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 1.844 million barrels during the latest reporting cycle, data published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed Wednesday.

However, US gasoline recorded the steepest weekly build in more than four months as seasonal restocking accelerated, climbing 3.3 million barrels, while demand flatlined over the period.