Oil futures: Crude flat amid Syria tensions, improved China data

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Crude oil futures Monday were steady as tensions in the Middle East and improved Chinese data offered limited support, while attention turned to this week's delayed OPEC+ meeting. 

Front-month Feb25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $71.78/b (1815 GMT) versus Friday's settle of $71.84/b.

At the same time Jan25 NYMEX WTI was trading at $67.98/b, versus Friday's settle of $68/b.

The Middle East faced further upheaval after the Syrian government said dozens of its soldiers had been killed in a major attack by Islamist rebels against the city of Aleppo on Saturday, which led to Russia carrying out airstrikes against the militants.

It comes against a backdrop of the standoff in neighbouring Lebanon with regular skirmishes since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was announced last week.

While neither front directly impacts oil flows, it adds to heightened tension in the region, increasing the prospects for a broader regional conflict.

China

Meanwhile, China's factory activity posted a second monthly rise, as Beijing's stimulus policies filter through. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged up to 50.3 in November compared with October's reading of 50.1, said the National Bureau of Statistics.

The index had contracted for five straight months prior to October.

However, concerns over a broader trade war are expected to cap further price upside as President-elect Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs against BRICS countries.

"Trump issued an ultimatum to the BRICS: either steer clear of launching a new currency or endorsing an alternative to the US dollar or brace for a sweeping 100% tariff imposition," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

"His directive adds a fresh layer of complexity to global economic relations and could signal seismic shifts in international trade dynamics," added Innes.

OPEC+

The week is expected to be dominated by the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which has been rescheduled to Thursday.

Analysts increasingly expect a rollover of current policy, although the meeting is also likely to focus on compliance and accommodating the UAE's agreed baseline level, allowing it to bump output in 2025.  

"Following two postponements, the group has to consider the risk of further price weakness amid the release of currently unwanted barrels, not least because expectations for robust production from non-OPEC+ producers next year could lead to a crude surplus," said Ole S Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Group.