Oil futures: Crude extends losses, Brent slides towards $76/b

21 Aug 2024

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Oil futures Wednesday were floundering again, as crude prices extended the bear run that had already wiped around $5/b off headline prices in just over a week.

Front-month Oct24 ICE Brent futures were trading at $76.20/b (1915 GMT), compared to Tuesday's settle of $77.02/b.

At the same time Oct24 NYMEX WTI was trading at $72.10/b, versus Tuesday's settle of $72.99/b, while the Sep24 contract expired at $74.04/b.

Markets have retreated sharply since the $82/b monthly Brent highs on a combination of demand-growth concerns and an erosion of the risk premium, with Iran so far stalling on its pledge to attack Israel.

The New York Times reported that a senior Iranian military official said on Tuesday retaliation against Israel over the killing of a senior Hamas figure in Tehran may be long in coming and take any number of forms, suggesting that an immediate attack against Israel may have been placed on hold.

"Oil prices are falling, extending losses from the previous week amid ongoing concern over demand in China and amid progress in Middle Eastern ceasefire talks," commented City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta, referencing early-week losses.

"Recent weak data from China has raised concerns surrounding the oil demand outlook in the world's largest oil importer," added Cincotta.

Prices also eased late in the session after the US issued data significantly downgrading the number of jobs added in the year to March, further weighing on sentiment.

Talks

Ceasefire talks continue to stumble along, with negotiations moving to Cairo. While the US has given an upbeat assessment of progress so far, Israel and Hamas officials have poured cold water on prospects of an imminent deal.

The main sticking point is Israel's insistence on retaining permanent control over two strategic corridors, including the 'Philadelphi Corridor' on the Gaza-Egypt border, which Hamas has long rejected.

Israel contends that the 14 km strip along the entirety of the border has become a key route for weapons smuggling from Egypt and into the hands of Hamas.

Jerusalem is also demanding control of the Netzarim Corridor, which divides the Gaza Strip between north and south, giving Israel control of movements within the Palestinian enclave.

Oil prices shrugged off what on the face of it looked a bullish inventory report from the EIA, which included a 4.6 million barrel drop in crude, along with falls in gasoline and distillates. 

Late Tuesday, inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed a small build in crude stockpiles of 350,000 barrels, going against expectations for a draw of up to 3 million barrels.

However, the API also calculated a 1 million fall in gasoline inventories, while distillates dropped more than 2 million barrels.