Oil futures: Crude eases further amid volatile trade

9 Oct 2024

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures Wednesday were sliding lower, but again subject to significant price swings amid headline-driven trading. 

Front-month Dec24 ICE Brent futures were trading at $76.20/b (1650 GMT), compared to the day's range of $75.15-$78.02/b and Tuesday's settle of $77.18/b.

At the same time Nov24 NYMEX WTI was trading at $72.78/b versus Tuesday's settle of $73.57/b.

Prices had initially recovered from the previous session's 4% slump as investors waited on Israel's response to last week's missile attack and whether or not oil installations will be targeted.

The market rowed back from near two-month highs on reports that the US and its Western allies were making progress in talking Israel down from targeting Iran's oil infrastructure, including the critical Kharg Island export terminal.

"With Israel yet to target Iran's oil infrastructure and the Persian Gulf's oil flow remaining steady, tensions have cooled off for now. The prevailing sentiment is that the longer Israel holds off on retaliation, the more likely cooler heads will prevail," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

But according to the Washington Post, a planned midweek visit to the US capital by Israel's top defense official was abruptly cancelled by Benjamin Netanyahu's government, prompting fears of a wider escalation in the conflict.

However, Netanyahu is set to speak with President Joe Biden on Wednesday ahead of an Israeli Cabinet vote on the response to Iran's missile attack, Israeli and US officials told NBC News.

Inventories 

Geopolitical events again overshadowed the latest inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, but prices also wobbled after the massive 10.9 million barrel build in crude stockpiles, which came in way above forecasts for a 2 million barrel increase.

The EIA also calculated an unexpectedly large 5.8 million barrel build in crude stockpiles. 

On the economics front, China's National Development and Reforms Commission (NDRC) disappointed with a lack of additional measures or further details surrounding the stimulus package announced last month.