Oil futures: Brent tops $81/b as China raises stimulus hopes  

21 Jul 2023

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures Friday were higher after Beijing raised hopes of introducing further stimulus measures in a bid to recharge its faltering economic recovery.

Sep23 ICE Brent futures were trading at $81.03/b (1845 GMT), compared to Thursday's settle of $79.64/b, as the benchmark continued to the week's trend of bouncing either side of $80/b.

At the same time Sep23 NYMEX WTI was trading $77.19/b, versus Thursday's close of $75.65/b, as both benchmarks heading for a fourth consecutive weekly gains.

China had disappointed on Thursday when it left its lending benchmarks unchanged, although hopes for a stimulus package remain high after Beijing said it will formulate plans to stabilise growth in 10 sectors, while also introducing new policies for supporting non-state-owned businesses set to be launched 'soon'.

While the latter announcement lacked details, it could signal a shift towards reduced interference in the private sector, potentially boosting outlook for the long run.

But broadly speaking, Brent has swung either side of $80/b since breaching that level in the middle of last week, as sentiment changes from one day to the next.

The recovery in products though has also boosted the case for the bulls, amid improved refining margins in the US, Asia and Europe.

"Demand for both (US) gasoline and diesel bounced back last week as oil demand was far from recessionary. Week over week gasoline demand rose by 99,000 bpd to 8.855 bpd and the demand for distillate fuels rose to 3.669 bpd, that was up 700,000 bpd from the week before," said Phil Flynn of The Price Futures Group

Flynn added that gasoline demand averaged 9.1 million bpd over the past four weeks, down by 8.3% from the same period last year.