Offshore operators eye Caribbean storm heading for Gulf of Mexico

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Oil and gas operators in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico were bracing for a second major storm of the month, with the new weather system already threatening offshore oil and gas production.

The system, designated Invest 97L, is currently brewing in the southern Caribbean but is expected to take a direct route via the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico, where the super-heated waters will potentially fuel a hurricane-strength storm named Helene.

Shell was the first to react, announcing it would take precautionary measures and shut in production at its Stones and Appomattox facilities in the Gulf, while the energy major has started evacuating non-essential personnel from platforms in the Mars Corridor.

From there, the system is expected to continue in a northerly/east direction, with current modelling showing landfall ranging from eastern Louisiana to Florida, including the coastal region referred to as the 'Big Bend'.

However, storm watchers cautioned that landfall and strength forecasts are notoriously difficult to predict this far out, and several factors could still come into play.

The further eastwards the storm makes landfall, the less impact there will be for the onshore oil and gas industry, with a cluster of infrastructure centred around the wider New Orleans metropolitan region.

As of early Monday, most landfall models had the storm well to the east of New Orleans, avoiding Louisiana's onshore oil and petrochemical facilities.

The Category 2 Hurricane Francine led to nearly 50% of US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production going offline earlier this month, although output was quickly restored last week.