North Sea Dated Brent crude loadings set for 6% drop in December
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Underlying volumes in the North Sea Dated Brent benchmark are set to ease in December, as production schedules settle into a regular pattern where only unscheduled offshore maintenance is carried out.
Supply from the five grades that underpin Dated Brent – Brent/Ninian, Oseberg, Forties, Ekofisk, and Troll – will average around 734,000 bpd in December versus the first-draft programs of around 780,000 bpd in November, according to brokers.
Ekofisk, which accounts for the largest volume of the five Brent 'basket grades,' will see output dip by around 10,000 bpd to 250,000 bpd, while the second largest grade by volume, Forties, will edge up by around 13,000 bpd to 213,000 bpd.
Oseberg is scheduled to drop by around 20,000 bpd to just under 60,000 bpd, while fellow Norwegian grade Troll is set for an fall of around 25,000 bpd to 155,000 bpd.
Output for the UK Brent/Ninian blend, the original two grades underpinning the Dated benchmark, is set to dip by 2,000 bpd to 58,000 bpd.
All the provisional loading schedules are subject to changes and it common for date changes on stems, or even for cargoes to slide into the next month.
At a standard size of 600,000 barrels, some 38 cargoes will underpin the Dated Brent benchmark over the duration of the December loading programme. However, typically only a handful of cargoes are 'in play' in any given month, usually the lowest-priced grade within the basket.
Dated Brent is set for a major overhaul next summer when light sweet crude from terminals along the US Gulf will be included, the first time the benchmark will include non-North Sea-origin crude.
Traders say that the inclusion of the WTI Midland grade will mark the biggest overhaul for the world's most important physical oil price, since the 2002 inclusion of Forties and Oseberg as alternative-delivery grades against Brent, amending the cash Brent market to BFO. Subsequently, Ekofisk and Troll were added
S&P Global Platts announced this week it will include six more locations as loading terminals for WTI Midland crude oil in its Dated Brent and Cash BFOE benchmarks, coming into effect for June 2023 deliveries.
