North Sea crude output to rebound in July following maintenance

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Underlying volumes in the North Sea benchmark Dated Brent benchmark will increase sharply in July following the completion of maintenance at key Norwegian fields, particularly Ekofisk.

Supply from the five grades that underpin Dated Brent – Brent/Ninian, Oseberg, Forties, Ekofisk, and Troll – will average around 775,000 bpd in July, up from a scheduled 560,000 bpd in June, according to loading programs.

The main output increase is in Norway's Ekofisk field, with production set to return to around 230,000 bpd versus a scheduled 60,000 bpd in June. Output is also set to increase at Oseberg and Troll fields.

However, UK Forties output is set to drop by nearly 50,000 bpd in July to around 210,000 bpd.

Oil and gas maintenance in the North Sea takes place over the summer months to avoid the Atlantic storms during winter.

The summer maintenance season, along with rocketing gasoline and diesel cracks and sanctions against Russian crude, have lifted the ICE Brent futures spread for Jul22/Aug22 to around $4/b this week.

Dated Brent, which represents light sweet crude grades in the North Sea, is used to set the price of at least half of the world's seagoing crude.

Publisher Platts said in February said it was considering the inclusion of US WTI Midland in the Dated Brent benchmark assessment from June 2023 to tackle falling North Sea volumes.

Premiums for North Sea benchmark crude grades have also strengthened, with the key Brent and Forties grades bid at premiums of nearly $3/b to the underlying swaps.