North Sea crude output set to slump in September, Brent/Ninian record low
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Underlying volumes in the North Sea Dated Brent benchmark are set to drop further in September, with North Sea summer maintenance and upgrading work seen running beyond August and highlighting depleting availabilities.
Supply from the five grades that underpin Dated Brent – Brent/Ninian, Oseberg, Forties, Ekofisk, and Troll – will average around 600,000 bpd in September versus the originally scheduled program of 735,000 bpd in August.
Ekofisk, which accounts for the largest volume of the five Brent 'basket grades,' will see output fall by around 70,000 bpd to 220,000 bpd, while the second largest grade by volume, Forties, will increase 26,000 bpd to 220,000 bpd.
Oseberg is scheduled to drop by around 37,000 bpd to just 40,000 bpd, while fellow Norwegian grade Troll is set for an output fall of 35,000 bpd to around 100,000 bpd.
Output for the UK Brent/Ninian blend, the original two grades underpinning the Dated benchmark, is set to slump by 18,000 bpd to just 20,000 bpd – a figure believed to be the lowest since production started in the 1970s.
In 1982, Brent production peaked at over 500,000 bpd, while the co-mingled Ninian reached a peak of over 300,000 bpd.
Both grades have been in decline ever since, prompting a number of supplementary crudes added to the Dated Brent benchmark to address depleting output, starting with Forties and Oseberg two decades ago.
The next much-needed injection will be the addition to US WTI Midland from June 2023, benchmark administrator S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) confirmed in June.
Dated Brent grades have traded at elevated levels throughout the summer, underpinned by loading shortfalls and buoyant distillates and gasoline margins.
The last reported trade on Forties was on Wednesday at +$4.70/b FOB over the underlying Dated Brent swap, although lower offers have since been heard.
