NHC tracking two weather systems, one year on from Ida
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - US storm watchers are monitoring two weather systems as of 26 August, and one is a disturbance poised to enter the Caribbean in what has so far been a quiet storm season compared to the previous two years.
As of 0200 eastern time Friday, the National Hurricane Center put the odds of it developing into a storm over the next five days at just 20%, but said conditions could become more favourable for development or early next week as it moves through the central and western Caribbean.
It is producing disorganised thunderstorms as it moves at 15 mph Friday morning and currently it is expected to stay well south of South Florida as it tacks west.
The weather warning comes exactly one year after then Storm Ida was initially flagged as a threat to oil and gas facilities across the Gulf of Mexico and land facilities.
As Category 4 hurricane, Ida went to wreak havoc across the Gulf and onshore Louisiana, causing damage that took months to repair fully.
The record 2020 hurricane season included storms Marco, Laura and Sally ripping through the GoM.
A second area of interest has emerged off the African coast and is expected to move west at 10 to 15 mph. As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center had given it a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and 20% in the next five days.
If either current system were to develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Danielle and the second would be Earl.
The region has now gone more than 50 days without a named storm since Colin dissipated on 3 July, the third-longest period in Atlantic hurricane history without a named storm since 1995.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven't been more storms this year.
The most active part of hurricane season is from the second half of August until the end of October, with 10 September the statistical peak of the season.
In its last update in early August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it still expects an above-average season, with a forecast for 14-20 named storms.
The official hurricane season ends on 30 November.