Middle East crude edges higher as focus switches to OPEC, gasoline cracks firm

Dubai, UAE (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) - Middle East crude oil moved higher Tuesday, as focus switched away from Suez Canal delays and towards the virtual OPEC+ meeting on April 1.

Market expectations that the OPEC+ producer group would agree to rollover current production cuts for at least another month underpinned prices, although concerns remain over the sluggish pace demand recovery.

Dubai cash for May delivery was assessed at $63.86 per barrel on March 29 (16.30 Singapore time), up $0.81/b from Monday's Singapore close, while DME Oman futures for May were $0.58/b higher at $63.48/b.

Products

In the Asia products market, gasoline cracks firmed for a second day with stronger physical and cash premiums leading the way.

One physical deal was heard with RON95 trading at $74.10/b. The April 92 RON swap crack rose $0.43/b to $6.60/b. The 92 RON cash assessment rose in line with swaps.

April naphtha swaps firmed $6/mt to $578/mt, outstripping the rise in crude and strengthening the crack.

The April crack versus cash Brent rose to -$0.09/b. No physical deals were heard beyond the $570/mt for 25kt on Monday and cash was assessed at $574/mt.

The diesel/gasoil April crack fell back as the benchmark front month 10ppm swap fell $0.25/b to $67.7/b. That pressured the crack to $2.95/b from $3.22/b a day earlier. Physical deals were heard at a $0.30/b discount to the underlying swaps.

Jet cracks fell back to $0.50/b for April from $0.92/b a day before. April swaps were marked at $65.5/b and physical was assessed at a $0.60/b to the underlying swaps.

Fuel oil cracks largely flatlined for April and the cash moved alongside the crude. High sulfur 180cst cracks for April were -$5.83/b, 380cst cracks were -$6.81/b and marine fuel 0.5% sulfur at $10/b. The high sulfur 180cst premiums were trading at a discount of $1.25/mt to underlying swaps on several deals.

Suez

Meanwhile, as the Ever Given container ship was re-floated Monday, vessel tracker Kpler counted a backlog of over 450 vessels currently waiting to sail through the Suez.

This includes over 100 oil and gas shipments, broken down into 30 crude carriers, 47 refined products tankers, 15 LNG carriers and 11 ships carrying LPG.

Kpler further noted that numerous vessels had already diverted away from Suez, taking the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.

The timeline for clearing the backlog of vessels and transit returning to normal is uncertain, but it's expected the backlog could take several weeks to clear.