Low growth in European flights contrasts with US, raises jet fuel revival doubts

London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) - Flight numbers in Europe rose 4% last week, far less than the previous three weeks, to cast doubt on the extent of the summer revival in jet fuel demand, data from Eurocontrol showed Monday.

The flight count in 41 countries, ranging from Iceland to Morocco, Ukraine and Turkey, rose to 112,773 over the week to June 13.

The weekly gain was just 4,446 flights, the lowest since May 16.

Flight numbers jumped 11,975 over the week to 6 June.

They were also up 5,620 over the week to May 30 and were up 9,416 over the week to May 23.

European flight numbers have remained around 50% below 2019 levels for the last three weeks.

Next week's data may surge again after a fresh round of easing travel restrictions.

Spain and Greece opened their borders on June 7 to all vaccinated travelers, and restaurants, bars and cafes in France opened on June 9.

The rest of Europe prepares to receive tourists cautiously on July 1, utilizing the EU digital Covid certificate that allows 'verifying certificates (Covid-passports) in a secure and privacy-friendly way.'  

But July and August cracks for jet cargoes arriving in north Europe, the main swap for the aviation fuel, climbed only marginally last week.

The July crack was pegged at $5.74/b on Friday, up $0.60/b from Monday, and the August crack was pegged at $6.55/b on Friday, up $0.44/b.

Goldman Sachs thinks a global revival in jet fuel demand will help push Brent above $80/b over the summer.