Goldman Sachs says Iranian oil export return may cut prices $5/b

London, (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) - US investment bank Goldman Sachs said a return to Iran as a large global exporter of crude oil is unlikely to come as a price shock to the market as a full recovery won't take place until next year.

The statement, which was sent in a note to clients, comes as US and Iranian officials are due to meet in Austria on Tuesday to discuss a return to the Iran nuclear deal.

"With OPEC+ appearing to manage its exit for now, supply concerns will likely shift to the potential return of Iran to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement," the bank said in the note.

The US has hinted that it expects the talks to be difficult, and Tuesday's meeting is an opening gambit as the two parties try to build trust after the Trump administration walked away from the five-year-old deal.

Goldman Sachs said it expected any deal to follow only after months of negotiations.

It said any return to historical exports before the end of the year would slash $5/b off its forecast of $75/b for Brent for this year and next, while prices could rise by $10/b if talks break down.