Global tourism to flatline in 2021 as losses set to hit $2.4tln again: UN
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Global tourism in 2021 is expected to flatline as industry losses are set to reach $2.4 trillion for the second straight year, with the aviation sector not expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 or later, a study by the UN showed.
In a report published by the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) on Wednesday, the UN body said the losses to the industry in 2020 were worse than expected with its worst-case scenario put out in July last year said to be "optimistic" in hindsight.
The UN said international tourism and linked sectors suffered an estimated loss of $2.4 trillion last year due to a steep drop in international tourist arrivals following the outbreak of Covid-19.
While it expects global tourism to pick up during the second half of 2021, its worst case scenario points to another year of $2.4 trillion losses compared to 2019 levels, with the most optimistic view forecasting $1.7 trillion in losses.
"The beginning of the year 2021 has been worse for most destinations, with an average global decline of 88 per cent as compared to pre-pandemic level, although the northern summer and autumn may see a significant improvement for some destinations, in particular for domestic and regional travel," the UNWTO said in the report.
In the worst-case scenario, a drop in global tourist receipts of $948 billion will cause a loss in real GDP of $2.4 trillion due to the multiplier effect which depends on the backward linkages in the tourism sector, including unemployment of unskilled labour.
"This ratio varies greatly across countries, from onefold to threefold or fourfold," the UNWTO said.
Losses will be more pronounced in developing countries due to the asymmetric rollout of vaccines globally, which could see a reduction in losses in more developed nations.
"The asymmetric roll-out of vaccines magnifies the economic blow tourism has suffered in developing countries, as they could account for up to 60% of the global GDP losses," it added.
According to the UN's scenarios for global tourism this year, Turkey would be the hardest hit with a potential loss of 9.1% to its GDP from the fall in tourism to pre-pandemic levels, followed by Ecuador at 9% and South Africa at 8.1%.
