Global journey growth stalls even as India continues recovery: Google data

London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) - Growth in personal mobility across much of the world's largest economies in the week to June 20 stalled, but India, the world's third biggest oil-consumer, saw the number of journeys continue to recover as lockdown measures are eased, according to the latest Google mobility data Tuesday.

India was hit hard by a third wave of infections in March, but new cases have slowed to around 42,000 per day as of June 21, down from a peak of nearly 400,000 per day in May.

The seven-day moving average for mobility in India was up 6 percentage points on the week to 22.3% below January 2020 levels and compared to an average of 39.6% below for the prior 4 weeks.

Mobility had fallen to almost 50% below January 2020 levels in the middle of May when infection rates were at their peak.

Lockdown measures were relaxed starting in India's more urbanised areas, where vaccination rates have been highest, earlier this month.

Journey growth slows in most major demand centres

Personal mobility rates were stalling, or even falling, across much of the world's other most important oil consumers, however, perhaps dampening enthusiasm for a sharp demand-led tightening in oil fundamentals.

The US saw mobility increase by just 0.1 percentage points on the week to 6.8% above the January 2020 average, or 1.1 points above the prior fortnight.

The number of new covid cases there is running at a 7-day average of around 11,000 cases per day, according to New York Times data, around 5% of peak levels.

Journeys jumped at the start of the month when restrictions were eased, but increases now appear to have slowed rapidly.

The US was joined by Germany and South Korea which largely flatlined over the week, although German figures were a hefty 25.6 points over the prior 4-week average.

Several major economies saw mobility fall though, led by the UK where mobility was 5.2 points down on the week and 4 points down from the prior fortnight, at 8% over January 2020.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson delayed a near-full relaxation of lockdown measures by 1-month to July 23 after cases and hospitalisations related to the Delta-variant of Covid spiked.

Japan also saw a 2.2 percentage point drop over the week to 9.1% below the 2020 level and falling mobility was likewise registered in Indonesia and Taiwan, as well as France, Italy, Spain, Canada, Brazil and Mexico.

Fresh clusters of Delta-variant cases in several European countries has raised fears of a further spike and officials there are closely monitoring the situation.