Flights numbers in Europe no higher in 2021 than 2020, recovery still years away

London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) - Air traffic in European skies will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2024 under the most optimistic forecast by Eurocontrol this month, while flight numbers this year will only recover to half the levels seen in 2019.

The Brussels agency for aviation safety, which tracks flights taking off and landing in 41 countries from Iceland across to Turkey and Ukraine and as far south as Morocco, expects commercial flights in 2021 will only reach 5.5 million, half the number recorded in 2019, and the same level as 2020.

After a slump at the start of the year amid the third wave of Covid-19, traffic will only have recovered to 72% of 2019 levels by the end of the year.

"While we are anticipating an uptick in summer traffic, our most likely medium-term scenario envisages a coordinated lifting of restrictions by Q1 2022 between regions, which facilitates more long-haul travel," said Eamonn Brennan, Eurocontrol's Director-General.

With widespread vaccination take-up across the European network by summer 2021 coupled with a coordinated easing of travel restraints and the resumption of a few long-haul flows, Eurocontrol thinks traffic could recover to 2019 levels in 2024.

But the more likely scenario is for traffic numbers to fall short by around 5% still.

There is also a worst-case forecast, envisaging persistent travel restrictions over the coming years owing to patchy vaccine uptakes and outbreaks of new virus strains.

If Covid-19 cannot be contained, Eurocontrol forecasts traffic in its 41 country remit will only reach 74% of 2019 levels in 2024.