European TTF gas spikes on extended Troll field maintenance

19 Sep 2023

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – European natural gas futures spiked in late trading Tuesday after Norwegian authorities announced a further delay to the restart of the giant Troll North Sea gas field.

System-operator Gassco said Troll capacity will be halted on Wednesday, blaming "process problems" following an extended period of maintenance.

Benchmark TTF futures for Oct23 closed Tuesday up 6.7% at €36.78/MWh, just off from the day's high of €37.60/MWh and having spent most of the afternoon session trading in the €34.50-35.00/MWh range.

Gassco had said early Monday it expected production from Troll at 20 million cubic metres (mcm) that day, with output is forecast to rise to 80 mcm/day by midweek out of a capacity of 125 mcm/day, Europe's largest.

European natural gas prices have witnessed significant swings in recent weeks, particularly as a result of strike action potentially impacting Australian LNG exports, while last week's technical issue at the US Gulf Freeport terminal caused the loss of at least four cargoes.

US natural gas prices also continued the week's firmer trend Tuesday, with the Oct23 Henry Hub contract on NYMEX moving up 5% to around $2.855/mmBtu in late-morning US trade, having closed last Friday at $2.605/mmBtu.

Prices were boosted as the Freeport terminal returned to near capacity, while further delays at Troll were seen lifting demand for US LNG cargoes, although the US system is already operating largely at full capacity.