Europe flight count rises 7%, but trajectory remains downbeat

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Flight numbers in Europe climbed another 7% last week, leaving the region on a trajectory to reach between 20 and 30% below 2019 levels by the end of the year, data from Eurocontrol showed Monday.

The flight count in 41 countries, ranging from Iceland to Morocco, Ukraine and Turkey, increased to 131,494 over the week to Sunday, up 8,523 from a week earlier.

Although less than the 10,198 rise in flights seen a week earlier, the seven day moving average improved to 47% below 2019 levels by Sunday, up from 49.7% below a week earlier.

But last week's data left the weekly flight count sandwiched between Eurocontrol's most optimistic forecast where flights numbers rise to 21% below 2019 levels by the end of the year, and its second scenario, where flight numbers reach 30% below.

Since the end of May, the weekly flight count has risen 35%, or more than 35,000 flight, largely driven by short-hauls flights for summer holidays.

Traffic to and from Spain slightly edged Germany over the week as the two busiest countries.

France was in third place, followed by Turkey, Italy, the UK and then Greece.

Ryanair was the busiest operators over the week, and five other no frills airlines were among the top ten most active.

A surplus of diesel on the market has depressed prompt jet cargo cracks for European cargoes this month, with the refining margin shedding around $1/b since the start of June to around $3.40/b Friday, according to Quantum data.

But cracks for the forward curve between August and December have been steadier, and there is a contango in the curve month-on-month to reflect the improvement in demand.  

The December jet crack for jet cargoes fell last week from $8.70/b on Tuesday to $8.31/b on Friday, but it was still higher than June 8 when it fell to $8.15/b, Quantum data shows.