EU 2050 hydrogen use to exceed 100m mt, oil & coal 3% of energy

London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) – Demand for hydrogen in the European Union could exceed 100 million mt by 2050 as commitments to cut emissions drive adoption of low and zero-carbon energy in the transport and industrial sectors, according to a report issued Tuesday by a newly launched industry body called Hydrogen4EU.

The report, funded by 17 industry partners including every oil supermajor, also forecasts a diminishing supply of primary energy from fossil fuels, predicting a 29% share for oil and coal in 2030 falling to 8% in 2040 and 3% in 2050.

This fall was somewhat offset by natural gas with its role to play in the production of low carbon hydrogen and which was modelled at a 29% share of supply in 2030, then 36% and 32% in 2040 and 2050.

Gross energy consumption was forecast at over 1.4 trillion mt of oil equivalent with renewable sources making up 49% of supply under the study's basic 'technology diversification' scenario, which assumes no extra policy pushes beyond existing plans.

More than half of the gross energy consumption would be from non-electrified technologies, leaving renewable and low carbon hydrogen with a large role to play if emissions goals are to be achieved, said the study.

"While renewables, electrification and energy efficiency are obvious and well-known contributors to a successful decarbonization, it is uncertain whether they are sufficient," said the report.

"Promising technologies are renewable and low-carbon hydrogen; versatile and clean fuels that could be used across the energy supply chain: as energy carrier and as feedstock for other synthetic fuels and industry processes."

Hydrogen4EU is a cross-sector research group comprising IFP Énergies Nouvelles, SINTEF  and Deloitte aiming to inform debate on the contribution of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen in reaching European energy transition goals.

Current policy lacks incentives for hydrogen's upscaling and for it to compete commercially and early investment will be needed to unlock its full contribution to net-zero goals, said the study.

When coupled with carbon capture and storage, hydrogen produced from natural gas is known as 'blue' hydrogen and is expected to create a relatively small well-to-wheel carbon footprint.

Hydrogen produced by electrolysis using renewable electricity sources is known as 'green' hydrogen and is expected to be close to zero carbon. 

The development of renewable hydrogen requires more than 1,800 GW of dedicated solar and wind capacities and more than 1,600GW of electrolysers to be installed by 2050,  implying a difference of more than $2 trillion in capital spending, said the report.

Blue hydrogen was predicted by the report to represent around two-thirds of European production in 2040 at 49 million mt, but green hydrogen would take on a greater role towards 2050, increasing from 19 million mt to 37 million mt.

On the way to the 2050 figure, demand for hydrogen was also forecasted to hit more than 80 million mt in 2040 following a more than 250% increase from a 2030 amount and up from the current circa 30 million mt.

Transport would require more than half of the 100 million mt total in 2050 with 37 million mt of hydrogen needed for transport fuel cells and 18 million mt required for hydrogen in e-fuels.

The bulk of the remaining hydrogen would be used by industry at 44 million mt, where it would account for 40% of the total energy requirement.

Around 15% of European demand would need to be imported.