EIA DATA: US distillate futures slide as East Coast stocks rise

15 Feb 2023

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – NY Harbor ULSD futures – the US benchmark – tumbled 3% on Wednesday as East Coast distillate stocks hit a 13-month high even as nationwide levels fell, EIA data showed.

Nationwide US stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels in the week to February 10 to 119.2m barrels, falling back from the nine-month high it hit during the prior week.

The weekly fall came as a surprise as the API had pencilled in a 1.73m-barrel rise, while market analysts polled by Reuters expected a 0.45m-barrel gain.

Yet nearly all of the losses were reported in the US Gulf (PADD3) as exports picked up again, while more volumes were shipped to the East Coast (PADD1) where stocks rose by over 2m barrels on the week to 36.6m.

That saw the front month NY Harbor futures fall 3% to below $2.86/gal, hovering near three-month lows.

Total US gasoline stocks dropped amid falling refinery throughput due to ongoing maintenance and continued problems following December's winter storm.

Crude refining slid back to just above 15m bpd, pushing distillate production down 155,000 bpd on the week to 4.3m bpd, its lowest since early January.

At the same time, demand rose by a similar amount with deliveries rising to a one-month high of 3.89m bpd, 10% down on the year but in line with the five-year average.

Exports were at 1.02 million bpd, but imports fell back, meaning the net outflow of distillates doubled on the week to 800,000 bpd.

Jet fuel output fell by 140,000 bpd on the week to 1.52m bpd, while demand fell by 101,000 bpd to 1.44m bpd.

Yet stock rose by 0.7m barrels on the week to a two-month high of 36.5m barrels as the US flipped to being a net importer of jet for the first time in a month.

The US exported 209,000 bpd, while imports jumped to a three-month high of 221,000 bpd.

Key stock figures (million barrels)

Commercial crude and product stocks: 1630 m barrels, +19.2 m barrels on week.

Commercial crude stocks: 471 m barrels, +16.3 m barrels on week.

Strategic crude stocks: 372 m barrels, 0.0 m barrels on week.

Gasoline stocks: 242 m barrels, +2.3 m barrels on week.

Middle distillate stocks: 119 m barrels, -1.3 m barrels on week.

Jet stocks: 37 m barrels, +0.7 m barrels on week.

Diesel stocks: 110 m barrels, -0.5 m barrels on week.

Residual fuel stocks: 31 m barrels, -1.9 m barrels on week.

Propane/propylene stocks: 66 m barrels, -2.6 m barrels on week.

Ethanol stocks: 25 m barrels, +0.9 m barrels on week.

Key demand figures (million barrels per day)

Total oil products: 19.3 million bpd, -1.23 million bpd on week.

Gasoline: 8.3 million bpd, -0.15 million bpd on week.

Jet: 1.4 million bpd, -0.1 million bpd on week.

Middle distillates: 3.9 million bpd, +0.13 million bpd on week.

Residual fuels: 0.7 million bpd, +0.52 million bpd on week.

Propane/propylene: 1.0 million bpd, -0.82 million bpd on week.

Key production and trade figures (million barrels per day)

Crude production: 12.3 million bpd, 0.0 million bpd on week.

Crude imports: 6.2 million bpd, -0.83 million bpd on week.

Crude exports: 3.1 million bpd, +0.25 million bpd on week.

Product imports: 2.3 million bpd, -0.73 million bpd on week.

Product exports: 6.1 million bpd, -0.2 million bpd on week.

Key refining figures (million barrels per day)

Net crude input into refineries: 15.0 million bpd, -0.38 million bpd on week.

Utilisation: 86.5%, -1.4% point on week.

Finished gasoline output: 9.3 million bpd, +0.44 million bpd on week.

Jet output: 1.5 million bpd, -0.14 million bpd on week.

Middle distillates output: 4.5 million bpd, -0.16 million bpd on week.

Diesel output: 4.3 million bpd, -0.17 million bpd on week.

Fuel oil output: 0.3 million bpd, -0.0 million bpd on week.