EIA DATA: Larger-than-expected US crude stock drop boosts futures

Quantum Commodity Intelligence – There was an unexpectedly large draw in US commercial crude oil stocks last week, with EIA data showing the country's stocks falling by over 5 million barrels last week to help unwind futures losses seen earlier in the day, which had pushed prices below levels that OPEC+ introduced its output cuts at.

The EIA's closely watched Weekly Petroleum Status Report published Wednesday called commercial crude oil stocks down 5.05 million barrels in the week to 21 April, a figure well above the 1.49 million barrels that analysts had been expecting.

It was also similar to overnight numbers from the American Petroleum Institute that had called commercial stocks down 6 million barrels over the week.

Commercial crude oil stocks in the US are now at an 11-week low of 460.9 million barrels.

After the release, crude oil futures bounced and walked back some of the losses seen earlier in the day's session – with Jun23 WTI jumping from an intraday low of $75.64/b in the overnight session to a high of $77.14/b.

Crude oil futures have been under pressure since the middle of the month, with the mounting threat of economic slowdown across the OECD threatening to derail the post-Covid recovery and blunting the impact of the OPEC+ decision to cut May output last month.

SPR

Other figures from Wednesday's report showed another draw in the US government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with total state-owned stocks at a fresh 40-year low of 366.9 million barrels after a big stock release programme.

Combined private and public crude oil stocks are at an 11-week low of 827.9 million barrels.

EIA stock figures do not always immediately match up with the rest of the report, with throughput at the country's refineries largely unchanged from last week at 15.8 million bpd.

Trade figures also only accounted for some of the week's drop, with net imports falling 10% on the week to 1.6 million bpd.

Those included imports edging 1% higher on the week to 6.4 million bpd, while exports were up 5% at a three-week high of 4.8 million bpd.

Production figures eased off slightly, dropping by 100,000 bpd to 12.2 million bpd – although the figure continues to bounce around a ceiling that has held for the last six months as producers struggle to reach pre-Covid output levels.