Dubai moves higher ahead of JMMC meeting, gasoline margins slump
London (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) – Middle East crude oil prices rebounded Tuesday on expectations that the OPEC+ producer group will review its planned production increases starting in May, seen as a counter measure agaibnst falling demand as a result of the lockdowns across India.
"They have to look again at the plan they agreed to last time," said one source, noting that there had not been any Indian buy tenders issued recently.
The JMCC technical group is scheduled to meet later Tuesday and determine if a full ministerial meeting is still required.
Analysts expect road transport fuel demand in India to fall by over 500,000 bpd in May.
Dubai cash for June delivery was assessed at $63.25/b on April 27 (16.30 Singapore time), up $0.90/b from Monday's Singapore close, while DME Oman futures for June settled $62.37/b at the Asian close, up $0.71/b.
Cash Brent (BFOE) was assessed at $66.25/b, up $0.86/b versus Monday's Singapore close. Brent/Dubai cash was little changed at $3.00/b, although the EFS eased from 17-month highs as the Brent structure softened.
Brent/Dubai EFS for June was assessed at $3.50/b.
Products
Fears over demand destruction for gasoline hit cracks in Singapore with the May crack falling to $5.87/b - the lowest in a month with swaps rising just $0.56/b on the day.
Three trades were heard for 95 RON specification at a flat price of between $74.10-74.30/b.
Conversely, in the naphtha market, good petchem demand for plastics production supported by some Asian tenders pushed the front month crack over $90/mt for the first time in more than a week, while the Q3 crack rose above $85/mt.
Distillate cracks were broadly stable on the day, with no deals heard for either diesel or jet kero.
And in the fuel oil markets, several trades pinned the cash differential value to swaps at around $1-1.25/mt.
That left higher-sulfur fuel cracks versus Brent broadly stable with the Marine Fuel oil month ahead crack at a one-week high against cash Brent, but at a seven-week high versus Dubai cash.