Dubai crude benchmark retreats on week, down 8.5% despite Friday rebound

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Middle East crude oil prices tumbled sharply over the week ending 3 December on demand crunch fears, although prices recovered from three-month lows touched midweek as the market staged a partial recovery Friday.

Front-month Dubai cash for February delivery was assessed up $1.66/b on the day at $70.86/b on 3 December (1630 Singapore time), but down $6.59/b on the prior Friday, or a fall of 8.52%, according to Quantum data.

Until Friday, prices had dropped for six consecutive sessions, culminating in Thursday's three-month assessment low of $69.10/b.

As markets continued to tumble after the Singapore close, at one point, cash Dubai slumped to around $65/b on Thursday.

Prices rebounded from the lows as OPEC+ left open a window to revisit output policy at any point this month, as the group expressed concerns over the spread of the Omicron variant and the expected oversupply in the first quarter.

ICE Brent futures for February at the Asia close Friday were trading at $771.82/b, down $6.33/b on the week, or 8.1%, as the North Sea benchmark gained slightly versus its Middle East counterpart.

The Brent/Dubai cash spread for February widened to $1.07/b, compared to $0.72/b last Friday, while the February EFS narrowed to around $3.10/b versus $4.30/b on 26 November.

The Dubai one-year forward curve came under strong downwards pressure, dropping by more than $2/b on the week to close at $5.06/b, as concerns over a 2022 inventory build spooked the market.

OPEC's forecasts see a 3 million bpd surplus in the first quarter.

Saudi Aramco will release its Official Selling Prices for January-loading crude at the start of next week, likely setting the tone for the spot market.