Brent to stabilise at $68/b in Q3, fall to $60/b in 2022: EIA

London, (Quantum Commodity Intelligence) – Brent crude oil prices will stabilise at $68/b in the third quarter of 2021 before falling to $60/b in 2022, the US Energy Information Administration said in its Short Term Energy outlook.

The figure contrasts with more bullish estimates, such as those from Goldman Sachs, who estimated that crude could hit $80/b in Q4.

"In the coming months, we expect global oil production to catch up with the increases we've seen in demand in 2021," said EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley.

"US and global oil producers are increasing their production, which should help moderate oil prices that have increased significantly as global economic concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have begun to ease."

The forecast is based upon global petroleum and liquids fuel consumption of 97.7 million bpd in 2021, increasing a further 4% to 101.3 million bpd in 2022 – matching record demand levels seen before the pandemic began last year.

"In response to this increase in global demand, we forecast US crude oil production will average 11.8 million bpd in 2022, up 4% from 2020. We expect OPEC production to reach 28.7 million bpd in 2022, an increase of 12% over 2020," it said.

Most analysts expect crude to trade in a $68-75/b range this year.

Brent crude futures traded at $71.72/b by time of press.