Atlantic low-pressure system seen developing into a storm, NHC says 80% chance

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - A low-pressure weather system currently making its way across the Atlantic has been given a 80% chance of intensifying into a storm within the next five days, the US National Hurricane Center said Wednesday, up from the 40% likelihood on Tuesday.

The system, currently designated as Invest 97L, is tracking towards the Lesser Antilles chain of islands that make up the eastern Caribbean.

"A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.

"Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph," the NHC said in bulletin published at 0800 EDT.

If the low-pressure system is upgraded to a tropical depression it will be named Elsa.
 
Meanwhile, Invest 95L in the Atlantic has failed to intensify into a storm, and now given just a 10% chance by the NHC.
 
Should 97L intensify into storm, the likelihood of disrupting oil and gas and facilities in the US Gulf is still fairly low.

Caribbean

Possible-storm Elsa would need to remain intact as it passes the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba and then traverse through the Yucatan Channel, the body of water between Mexico and Cuba, or over Cuba itself..
 
Even if the storm makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, modelling has any storm tracking east, largely away from oil and gas facilities, both on and offshore.   

Additionally, storms at this time of the year are typically less threatening, with the more powerful storms usually from August onwards as the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters heat up.

However, some weather watchers believe that storm activity this early in the year could be a precursor to another lively hurricane season. 

In May the US government agency, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, forecasted another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2021

The record 2020 hurricane season had a devastating impact on the oil and gas sector, with storms like Marco, Laura and Sally ripping through the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall along the US Gulf coast, which hosts much of the US oil and gas infrastructure.