Atlantic hurricane season heads into peak, three weather systems form

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Energy traders are braced this month for an upturn in Atlantic weather activity following a quiet July, as August typically heralds the start of the 'peak' North Atlantic season as weather systems traverse the warmer waters in the Atlantic, particularly the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, providing fuel for would-be hurricanes heading towards the US.

Already this month several weather systems over the Atlantic have garnered interest among storm watchers – Invest 94L leads the way followed by 93L and 92L – the designations assigned by the National Hurricane Center when a system becomes an 'investigative area'.

Reports say 94L and 93L are attracting the most interest with conditions said to be against 92L.

Should any of these weather systems intensify enough to form into a storm, it will be assigned the name Fred, the first named storm since Elsa in early July.

Heatwaves across North America have already had a major impact on energy prices this year, particularly on regional US natural gas and power prices.

Global natural gas prices have also been riding at record highs this year, including Europe's TTF benchmark and North Asia's JKM gas marker.

An active US Gulf hurricane season will almost certainly further lift global gas and crude prices, particularly if storms lead to extended shutdowns of production and processing facilities.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) and numerous tracking models are just a few internet clicks away, giving access to the latest satellite data and forecast models to traders across the world.

However, predicting the path and intensity of any given storm is the tricky part.    

Forecasts

Weather forecasters Accuweather said the return of La Niña is signalling yet another above-average hurricane season, as well as some other high-impact weather events across the US in the coming months.

AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a total of 16-20 named storms, which includes 7-10 hurricanes. This is more than the seasonal average of 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes, an average that has increased in recent years. Additionally, five to seven storms are projected to make landfall in the US.

However, there may be some relief for the US Gulf this year with Accuweather expecting the US east coast to come under fire.

"Last year, storms focused on the Gulf Coast from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle with multiple high-impact storms slamming into Louisiana," said Accuweather.

"This year, more storms could turn up and swipe the Atlantic coast all the way from Florida to southern New England, or take a more westerly track and head toward Texas. However, a landfall in Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama cannot be completely ruled out.

Favourable conditions

Last week the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the US National Weather Service, said the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is well underway, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for an above-average hurricane season.

The report said the latest outlook reflects that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater).

NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

"A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead," said NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.