ANALYSIS: US stocks rise, crude production to set new record in 2023
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Inventories of crude, gasoline and diesel all rose in the last week of the official driving season despite crude throughput falling, EIA showed Thursday, as it forecast record crude production of 12.6 million bpd next year.
US gasoline stocks rose for the first time in five weeks with Labor Day weekend traditionally marking the end of the summer driving season, edging 0.2% higher to 214.8 million barrels in the seven days to 2 September.
Stocks swelled by nearly 3% on the Atlantic coast, likely as a result of arrivals from Europe, with the transatlantic arb open recently on demand for winter volumes.
US gasoline imports topped 1 million bpd for the first time since June, with 936,000 bpd arriving in the US Atlantic coast alone.
Diesel inventories were up 0.8% to 101.6 million barrels.
Stocks of both fuels are relatively tight, with gasoline trailing the five-year average by around 6% and diesel 20% below.
Total distillate inventories stand at 111.8 million barrels, and the EIA forecasts a build to 118 million barrels by the end of 2022, to around 17% below their five-year average.
A global shortage of diesel, exacerbated by sanctions on Russia following its war in Ukraine, saw distillate stocks collapse to a 17-year low in early summer.
Commercial crude stocks rose by 2.1% to a four-week high of 427.2 million barrels, up 0.8% on the year and down around 2% from its five-year average.
And the release of strategic reserves continued, with SPR crude falling by 1.7% to a new 38-year low of 442.7mn barrels.
Demand
Gasoline demand ticked up by 1.6% to a three-week high of 8.7 million bpd, but remains 7% below its five-year average for the week.
Distillate demand ticked up by 1.6% to 3.6 million barrels, down around 3% from its five-year average.
Another fall in US retail prices will have boosted demand, as will the build up to the long weekend for Labor Day on 5 September.
Weekly US retail gasoline prices dropped to a six-month low of $3.70/USG in the week to 5 September, according to the EIA, helped by a fall in wholesale prices.
Subdued road fuel demand this summer and rising supply has weighed heavily on gasoline.
RBOB futures are currently at their lowest since January at $2.339/USG by Thursday's 1630 London close, from $2.39/USG a week ago.
Supply
Crude production was up by 20% on the year at 12.1 million bpd, and is expected to grow further.
However, crude throughput was down, falling 310,000 bpd to 15.9 million bpd with refinery utilization falling.
The EIA expects US production to average 11.8 million bpd this year and set a new all-time high of 12.6 million bpd in 2023.
It will eclipse the previous record set in 2019 of 12.3 million bpd.
The world's next largest producer, Saudi Arabia, pumped 10.7 million bpd in July.
Fuel production also increased, with gasoline up 400,000 bpd to 9.8 million bpd, and diesel output 90,000 bpd higher at 4.9 million bpd.
Key stock figures
Commercial crude and product stocks: 1668 m barrels, +3.7 m barrels on week.
Commercial crude stocks: 427 m barrels, +8.8 m barrels on week.
Strategic crude stocks: 442 m barrels, -7.5 m barrels on week.
Gasoline stocks: 215 m barrels, +0.3 m barrels on week.
Middle distillate stocks: 112 m barrels, +0.1 m barrels on week.
Jet stocks: 39 m barrels, +0.2 m barrels on week.
Diesel stocks: 102 m barrels, +0.8 m barrels on week.
Residual fuel stocks: 27 m barrels, -0.7 m barrels on week.
Propane/propylene stocks: 74 m barrels, +1.9 m barrels on week.
Ethanol stocks: 23 m barrels, -0.4 m barrels on week.
Key demand figures
Total oil products: 19.9 million bpd, -0.18 million bpd on week.
Gasoline: 8.7 million bpd, +0.14 million bpd on week.
Jet: 1.4 million bpd, -0.39 million bpd on week.
Middle distillates: 3.6 million bpd, +0.06 million bpd on week.
Residual fuels: 0.5 million bpd, +0.12 million bpd on week.
Propane/propylene: 1.1 million bpd, +0.42 million bpd on week.
Key production and trade figures
Crude production: 12.1 million bpd, 0.0 million bpd on week.
Crude imports: 6.8 million bpd, +0.82 million bpd on week.
Crude exports: 3.4 million bpd, -0.53 million bpd on week.
Product imports: 2.3 million bpd, +0.41 million bpd on week.
Product exports: 6.4 million bpd, +0.39 million bpd on week.
Key refining figures (million barrels per day)
Net crude input into refineries: 15.9 million bpd, -0.31 million bpd on week.
Utilisation: 90.9%, -1.8% point on week.
Finished gasoline output: 9.8 million bpd, +0.04 million bpd on week.
Jet output: 1.6 million bpd, -0.07 million bpd on week.
Middle distillates output: 5.0 million bpd, +0.11 million bpd on week.
Diesel output: 4.9 million bpd, +0.09 million bpd on week.
Fuel oil output: 0.3 million bpd, -0.02 million bpd on week.