ANALYSIS: US gasoline stocks at 10-mth low, diesel and crude build

Quantum Commodity Intelligence - US gasoline stocks drained to a ten-month low on higher outflows last week, EIA data showed Wednesday, while crude and distillates moved the other way.

Gasoline inventories fell to their lowest since last November at 213 million barrels as of 9 September, down 0.8% over the week and 2.3% below the same time last year.

Stocks were drawn down as net outflows jumped to nearly 550,000 bpd, the highest since March.

Gasoline imports halved from the previous week to just over 500,000 bpd, while exports were steady at around 1 million bpd.

European exporters rushed to take advantage of an open TA arb at the start of September, which briefly opened on the seasonal switch to winter grades.

Suppliers will now be looking to run down summer-grade stocks as it is usually uneconomical to blend down to cheaper winter specs, while backwardation through winter makes storage difficult.

Stocks rose despite a fall in gasoline demand, which has been below its historical average for most of this summer, down 2.7% on the week to 8.5 million bpd, 4.5% lower than a year ago. 

Distillates surge

US diesel stocks climbed 4.3% to just a seven-month high of 106 million barrels as demand slumped and exports slowed.  

And jet climbed 1.2% to a three-week high of 39 million barrels.

Distillate stocks are still 17% below their five-year average, amid a global shortage of supply exacerbated by a post-Covid economic rebound, a draw into the bunker fuel and sanctions on Russia following its war in Ukraine.

Stocks have recovered around 10% from 17-year lows in early summer, and the EIA set a target last week of a build to 118 million barrels by the end of 2022.

A slowdown in outflows helped. Distillate exports ticked down to 1.4 million bpd and imports were steady at 125,000 bpd, pushing net exports down to a five-week low of 1.2 million bpd.

But lower demand was the real driver, slumping 14% over the week to 3.1 million bpd, or around 18% below the same time last year.

Crude adds 2.4m b 

Commercial crude stocks climbed 0.6% (+2.4 million barrels) to a four-week high of 429.6 million barrels, around 3% above the same time last year.

Crude imports fell 15% in the week to 9 September to a seven-month low of 5.8 million bpd, while exports were largely steady at 3.5 million bpd.

Crude production was stable at 12.1 million bpd, and so were crude runs at around 16 million bpd.

US strategic reserves continued to slide, falling 1.9% to a new 38-year low of 434 million barrels. 

Key stock figures (million barrels)

Commercial crude and product stocks: 1665 m barrels, -2.9 m barrels on week.

Commercial crude stocks: 430 m barrels, +2.4 m barrels on week.

Strategic crude stocks: 434 m barrels, -8.4 m barrels on week.

Gasoline stocks: 213 m barrels, -1.8 m barrels on week.

Middle distillate stocks: 116 m barrels, +4.2 m barrels on week.

Jet stocks: 39 m barrels, +0.5 m barrels on week.

Diesel stocks: 106 m barrels, +4.4 m barrels on week.

Residual fuel stocks: 28 m barrels, +1.1 m barrels on week.

Propane/propylene stocks: 78 m barrels, +3.8 m barrels on week.

Ethanol stocks: 23 m barrels, -0.3 m barrels on week.

Key demand figures (million barrels per day)

Total oil products: 19.3 million bpd, -0.58 million bpd on week.

Gasoline: 8.5 million bpd, -0.23 million bpd on week.

Jet: 1.5 million bpd, +0.05 million bpd on week.

Middle distillates: 3.1 million bpd, -0.49 million bpd on week.

Residual fuels: 0.3 million bpd, -0.25 million bpd on week.

Propane/propylene: 0.5 million bpd, -0.56 million bpd on week.

Key production and trade figures (million barrels per day)

Crude production: 12.1 million bpd, 0.0 million bpd on week.

Crude imports: 5.8 million bpd, -0.99 million bpd on week.

Crude exports: 3.5 million bpd, +0.08 million bpd on week.

Product imports: 1.6 million bpd, -0.71 million bpd on week.

Product exports: 6.3 million bpd, -0.07 million bpd on week.

Key refining figures (million barrels per day)

Net crude input into refineries: 16.0 million bpd, +0.09 million bpd on week.

Utilisation: 91.5%, +0.6% point on week.

Finished gasoline output: 9.6 million bpd, -0.24 million bpd on week.

Jet output: 1.6 million bpd, 0.0 million bpd on week.

Middle distillates output: 5.0 million bpd, -0.01 million bpd on week.

Diesel output: 4.9 million bpd, +0.02 million bpd on week.

Fuel oil output: 0.3 million bpd, +0.06 million bpd on week.